Will Clarence Thomas's replacement be appointed by a Democratic president?
PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiSeçim6y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
26 Eki 2026 04:28 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 55.4%
Tahminciler
13
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli19 Oca 26 19:23 UTC19 Oca 33 19:18 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Clarence Thomas break the record for longest tenured US Supreme Court Justice?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas retire from the Supreme Court before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas announce his retirement?
KalshiWill Clarence Thomas leave Supreme Court in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by which date?
PolymarketClarence Thomas becomes longest serving Supreme Court Justice?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a Democratic president appoints Clarence Thomas's replacement to the Supreme Court.
- This market resolves NO if a Republican president appoints his replacement.
- Resolution will be determined by the party affiliation of the president who nominates and the Senate that confirms the replacement justice.
- The replacement must specifically fill Thomas's seat—expansion of the Court or replacement of other justices (Alito, Sotomayor, etc.) does not count.
- Thomas has served as an associate justice of the Supreme Court since 1991, and has surpassed Justice Hugo Black to become the fifth-longest-serving justice in U.S. Supreme Court history as of November 2025.