Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 90%
Tahminciler
10
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis19 Tem 26 12:08 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsCondition on DPP winning the 2024 election, Will China attempt to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill China invade Taiwan before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Tumbles and Polymarket resolve the same way regarding "Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2027?"
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketKurallar
This market will resolve "yes" if there is a Chinese military attack with the intention to invade Taiwan by the end of 2027.
- This question is answered "No" if there is:
- no military conflict between the two parties
- a limited military conflict without triggering a major war
- On the one hand, this time span approximately reaches the maximum forecast range (~<5 years), as Philip E. Tetlock in his book Superforecasting: the art and science of prediction.
- Moreover, 2027 is the year in which, as frequently reported, China wants to seek military capabilities to successfully invade Taiwan without saying that it will act accordingly.
