Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 57%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Guncelligini yitirmis2 Ağu 23 16:50 UTC2 Oca 27 07:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the average US Temperature in 2026 be greater than 55.5 degrees Fahrenheit?
ForecastExWill the average US Temperature in 2026 be greater than 54.1 degrees Fahrenheit?
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ForecastExWill the average US Temperature in 2026 be greater than 56 degrees Fahrenheit?
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KalshiWill we get room temperature superconductors before 2027?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in the existence of a general artificial intelligence which has a "room temperature" IQ score of 68-77 according to the Wechsler Adult Intelligence Scale?
- The AI must be a "general intelligence" according to expert consensus.
- It needs to be able to take the test repeatedly and be consistently given a score between 68-77, not higher or lower.
- Resolves YES if these criteria are met by the beginning of 2027, or NO if they are not.
- I will not trade in this market.
