Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 72.2%
Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
32 dakika önce güncellendi
13 Haz 26 13:34 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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Manifold MarketsWill more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
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PolymarketKurallar
This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.
- "Restricted to US persons" is used loosely, for intent.
- The market does not turn on the formal legal definition (citizens, green-card holders, etc.).
- What matters is that a model is gated to the US / people in the US / US residents / US nationals by law or policy, and most of OpenAI's usual foreign user base cannot use it.
- Resolves YES if OpenAI releases or operates any model (via ChatGPT, the API, or any OpenAI product) that becomes subject to a US-only restriction through any of:
- Geography — available to users accessing from within the US but withheld from a substantial share of the countries OpenAI normally serves (UK, EU, Canada, Japan, India, Australia, Brazil, etc.).
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 72% fiyatlıyor.
- Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will any OpenAI models be restricted to US in 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market asks whether OpenAI will release or operate a model that ends up gated to the United States — by geography, residency, or nationality — while being withheld from its normal international user base.