Will any of OpenAI’s massive release of mathematical results be shown to be flawed by the end of November?
YZOne-Off
Manifold MarketsKapalıKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreBu piyasa sonuçlandı: Yes (99%)
Sonuçlandı: 8 Eki 2026 11:37
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CoinRithm bu piyasa için kazanan ve sonuçlanma zamanı konusunda sağlayıcı destekli kanıta sahip.
Kazanan Sonuç
Yes
7 gün kala
—
24 saat kala
37%
SürprizVeri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
8 Eki 2026 21:51 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Olasılık Zaman Çizelgesi
Yes99%
No1%
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[tweet]YES if, by November 30, there is a consensus in credible reporting or within the academic community that at least one of the core arguments, theorems, or proofs in OpenAI's GitHub repo is fatally flawed or incorrect.
- Otherwise, resolves NO.
- "Flawed" means a core mathematical or theoretical error is identified that invalidates the main result of the paper, and the error is either unfixable or difficult to patch.
- Nitpicks—such as minor typos, formatting errors, minor translation gaps in the Lean formalization that do not undermine the mathematical proof's validity, or easily patchable edge cases—do not count toward a YES resolution.
- The flaw has to be in the repo as it is released today - later hotfixes don’t remove an eligible flaw, but later additions don’t count either.