Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028?
YZOne-Off2yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 56.2%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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6 dakika önce güncellendi
22 May 25 18:16 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker
- I'm expecting Nate to repeat this test.
- If he doesn't even try, this resolves NO.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has specified conditions regarding tool usage by the LLM, in line with Nate Silver's post about testing for general intelligence:
- The LLM must not use tools specifically designed for poker (e.g., dedicated poker solvers).
- The LLM may use generic tools, such as the ability to write and execute Python scripts.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 56% fiyatlıyor.
- Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2028.
- Will any LLM produce a reasonable poker simulation, as judged by Nate Silver, by the end of 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: https://open.substack.com/pub/natesilver/p/chatgpt-is-shockingly-bad-at-poker