Güncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 67.3%
Tahminciler
7
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis14 Nis 26 17:36 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWill ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to "YES" if, between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, any frontier LLM provider (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, X, Apple, IBM, Microsoft, Meta, Qwen, Deepseek, ZAI, Moonshot, or Mistral) explicitly markets or releases a model specifically optimized for aesthetic judgment, "taste," or artistic evaluation.
- The announcement or release must explicitly frame the model's primary differentiator or capability as evaluating or producing work based on aesthetic standards rather than just general quality or technical correctness.
- Resolution will be determined by official company announcements, press releases, or documentation from the provider.
- If the term "taste" or "aesthetic judgment" is not explicitly used, the market will resolve to "NO." Ambiguous marketing that does not clearly distinguish a model as specifically optimized for "taste" will resolve "NO."
- "Frontier LLM" generally refers to large-scale, highly capable models at the cutting edge of AI development.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+21.1pt73.8%
- September 23+4.1pt10.3%
- September 24-2.7pt7.5%
+13 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺14 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺11,5 Mn
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney-2.0pt20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺73,4 Mn
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺247 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺6,2 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.1pt68.9%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt15.5%
- Gemini-1.6pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺574,5 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,7 Mn
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.3pt98%
- Google-0.1pt1%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
+18 daha fazla sonuç
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 22 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 67.3% fiyatlıyor.
- Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolution criteria