Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 95.7%
Tahminciler
21
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
2 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Kas 25 20:23 UTC30 Kas 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will any frontier LLM provider introduce a model explicitly optimized for aesthetic judgment or ‘taste’ in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketOpus 5.2 released in September?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.
- Alternatively, if 2 or more of these 3 frontier labs require the mobile app user to keep the app open while the model is reasoning about an answer, or else it won't complete, then this market resolves NO.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+21.1pt73.8%
- September 23+4.1pt10.3%
- September 24-2.7pt7.5%
+13 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺14 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺11,5 Mn
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-3.0pt28%
- Mark Carney-2.0pt20%
- Donald Trump-1.0pt10%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺73,4 Mn
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
+13 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺247 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺6,2 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-1.1pt68.9%
- ChatGPT-0.6pt15.5%
- Gemini-1.6pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺574,5 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic lab leak by which date?
- June 30, 2027-4.0pt7%
- December 31, 2026+0.2pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,7 Mn
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.3pt98%
- Google-0.1pt1%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
+18 daha fazla sonuç
- Best AI this week
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Next GPT Sol Model (5.7+) released on?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 22 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 95.7% fiyatlıyor.
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 30 Kasım 2026.
- Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves YES if, in November 2026, at least 2 of {OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind}'s mobile app lets the user close the app while the model is reasoning about an answer, and when the user later reopens the app, the model has continued/completed reasoning.