Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 90.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Mar 26 04:17 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will Claude Fable 5 score on ARC-AGI-3?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI Model first score >= 170 on the Epoch Capabilities Index?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the highest score achieved on ARC-AGI-2 before 2027?
FutuurWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.
- Resolution criteria:
- Score must be reported on the official ARC Prize leaderboard (arcprize.org) or in a peer-reviewed paper
- Must be ARC-AGI-2 specifically (not ARC-AGI-1 or other variants)
- Private/public leaderboard scores both count
- The model can use any approach (LLM, neuro-symbolic, program synthesis, etc.)
Açık piyasalar
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 91% fiyatlıyor.
- Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will any AI model score above 95% on ARC-AGI-2 by end of 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if any AI model achieves a score above 95% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark by December 31, 2026.