Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027?
YZOne-Off1yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 50.5%
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Guncelligini yitirmis12 Ağu 26 15:59 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a Mythos-tier-at-cybersecurity open-source model be released before end of 2027?
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KalshiKurallar
Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.
- One possible way to release such a model without causing a cyber apocalypse would be to differentially reduce cyber capabilities in the released weights of the model (like Anthropic did that one time for Opus)
- For example they could do this and then withhold the cyber-capable modules from the public https://alignment.anthropic.com/2026/modular-pretraining/
- Unlearning has to be robust, but that sounds hard to judge, so I'll err on the side of YES and so if it's unclear whether the unlearning is robust then the market resolves YES, but if the unlearning is obviously not robust (someone publicly restores capabilities, company says they literally just did GradDiff, etc) then the market resolves NO.
- Capabilities have to actually be dangerous.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 51% fiyatlıyor.
- Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2027.
- Will an open-source model with dangerous capabilities differentially unlearned be released by EOY 2027? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Within a year we might get open source models with the cyber capabilities of Mythos.