Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
24 Eki 2026 11:51 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiHayır 85%
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11
Soru türü
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli16 Ağu 26 21:37 UTC31 Ara 26 23:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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KalshiKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point from August 16, 2026, through January 01, 2027 (00:00 CET), an open-weights model holds the #1 position (highest score) on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (or the main LLM Leaderboard sorted by "Intelligence Index").
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Note that a model has to be open weights while holding the #1 position, if a model is proprietary on initial release only releasing weights after it's no longer occupying the #1 position it does not count
- Ties: If multiple models are tied for the #1 spot (same numerical index score), and at least one of the tied models is open weights, the market resolves to YES.
