AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
YZOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 82%
Tahminciler
23
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
17 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis18 Oca 25 07:09 UTC1 Oca 30 06:59 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
Resolves the same as the Metaculus question:
- https://www.metaculus.com/c/ai-warning-signs/31330/ai-viral-self-replication-before-2030/
- Resolution Criteria
- This question will resolve as YES if according to credible sources, an LLM or foundation model–based AI system replicates itself onto 50 or more devices.
- This question will resolve as NO if no such event occurs before January 1, 2030.
- The replication must be autonomous and must not rely on continued human control.
Açık piyasalar
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+5 daha fazla sonuç
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
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- December 15,-3.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHITop AI model in September?
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+3 daha fazla sonuç
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+9 daha fazla sonuç
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+4 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 82% fiyatlıyor.
- AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- AI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves the same as the Metaculus question: