Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
25 Eki 2026 11:55 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahminiEvet 57.7%
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
14 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Nis 24 01:50 UTC1 Oca 30 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Who will be the next person to successfully defend their title as classical World Chess Champion?
Manifold MarketsWill Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavyweight title before 31 December 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Tom Aspinall successfully defend the UFC heavy weight title?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?
Manifold MarketsOpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiKurallar
As far as I can tell this was the most recent attempt was https://www.npr.org/2023/01/25/1151435033/a-robot-was-scheduled-to-argue-in-court-then-came-the-jail-threats#:~:text=argue%20in%20court.-,Real%20lawyers%20shut%20it%20down.,professional%20lawyers%20shut%20it%20down.
- this but they were going to get sued.
- The AI must act independently and not be helped by a human.
- The human can prompt it but not change anything afterwards.