Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 72.9%
Tahminciler
93
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis26 Ağu 25 20:35 UTC1 Oca 27 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029?
Manifold MarketsWhen will a single agent beat Minecraft (defeat the Ender dragon)?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028 will a language model beat the Ender Dragon?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketWhat will Bernie say during his Ballots Over Billionaires Rally in Los Angeles?
KalshiKurallar
2027 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337
- In line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2027? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs.
- Systems which are pretrained on human data are allowed.
- The system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator.
- Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.
- 2026 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-CPpOcyROzc 2028 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-Ls5ugPg6yU 2029 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-OzAACndlZA