Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 56.7%
Tahminciler
28
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis19 Mar 26 13:11 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
Manifold MarketsThird-best AI Lab end of October?
PolymarketThird-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
Polymarket#2 AI Lab end of October? (Style Control On)
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if a frontier AI company publicly announces or is credibly reported to have hired, contracted, or established a formal advisory relationship with a theologian or religious body specifically in connection with AI safety or alignment research.
- Conference panels and casual conversations do not count.
- Hiring someone who happens to have a theology degree does not count.
- There will be no AI clarifications added to this market's description.
- Resolution = Expiry.
Açık piyasalar
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 57% fiyatlıyor.
- Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2026.
- Will an AI lab consult a theologian for alignment research in 2026? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves YES if a frontier AI company publicly announces or is credibly reported to have hired, contracted, or established a formal advisory relationship with a theologian or religious body specifically in connection with AI safety or alignment research.