Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 83.8%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis14 Ağu 23 20:31 UTC1 Oca 30 05:59 UTC
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Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
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KalshiKurallar
Resolves YES if an AI participates in a competition primarily involving wiping such as a window-wiping or mopping competition, and beats all human opponents.
- There must be at least one human opponent for it to count.
- The competition must have some degree of officialness to it, like an organization putting on the competition. "I held a competition in my basement, and the AI won" doesn't count.
- I will use my best judgement to determine if a competition is "official" (I may make the criteria for officialness more precise based on suggestions in the comments).
- If I can't find any example of an AI winning a competition like this by 2030, resolves NO.
- If an AI has already won a competition like this, that counts for a YES resolution, too.