Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 75.1%
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33
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis1 Ara 25 14:07 UTC31 Ara 28 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Which company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of October?
PolymarketTop Text to Video AI this week
KalshiWill "RA x ControlAI video: What if AI just keeps g..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best Text-to-Video AI end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.
- Being able to detect like >50% of entirely AI generated photos and videos would resolve this market YES.
- If it's unclear, resolves to a poll.
- Should be pretty obvious though I hope
- Update 2025-12-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator considers current AI detectors to meaningfully exist for current GenAI, as there are tools that mostly work and AI content is often detectable to the eye at >50% accuracy.
- This suggests the bar for "meaningful existence" in 2028 is similar - tools that mostly work with >50% detection rate.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 75% fiyatlıyor.
- Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2028.
- Will photo/video "AI detection" meaningfully exist in December 2028? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: e.g. the ability to distinguish if images or videos are AI generated to some reliable degree.