Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)? için güncel oranlar nedir?

Manifold Markets, 23 Ekim 2026 itibarıyla Will not cause extinction için 78.8% fiyatlıyor.

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Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2101.

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Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Please answer as you would for the question "will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100".

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Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

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Will not cause extinction 78.8%

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multiple choice

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Play-money forecasting platform

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2 saat önce güncellendi

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13 Ara 23 16:26 UTC1 Oca 01 04:59 UTC

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Please answer as you would for the question "will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100".

If your answer is "no", choose "the named outcome"
If your answer is "yes", please try to identify which of the following scenarios will be the "main" cause for human extinction:
Foom: rapidly self-improving AI destroys humanity as a result of pursuing some misaligned goal
Terminator: AI blatantly disregards human instructions and pursues its own goals.
Alignment Failure: AI appears superficially good but causes extinction due to a subtly mis-stated goal.

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Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

Will AI cause human extinction before 2100 (and how)?

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