Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 63.7%
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15
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis19 Mar 24 20:05 UTC2 Oca 30 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Is Satoshi Nakamoto a rogue AI?
Manifold MarketsAI Warning Signs: Will an AI system self-replicate on the open internet like a computer virus before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2033?
Manifold MarketsWill the European Commission's AI Office issue a formal notice of non-compliance to a provider of a "High-Risk AI System" on or before December 31, 2026?
ForecastExWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.
- Directed attacks (such as a nation-state executing an AI-powered cyberattack) are excluded, as the damage in those cases is intended by human operators.
- Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify as a rogue AI, there must be a loss of control over the AI system.
- This excludes directed and intentional attacks where the AI is operating under the control and intent of its deployers.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-5.0pt61.6%
- 202730.3%
- 2026-4.5pt8.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺6 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.4pt59.2%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt24.3%
- Grok-0.9pt6.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺516,8 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-3.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+8.0pt79%
- claude-opus-5-max+2.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-4.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.0pt87%
- October 31-5.0pt72%
- September 30-16.5pt12%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla No için 64% fiyatlıyor.
- Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2030.
- Will a rogue AI system cause >$1B USD in damage in a single incident before 2030? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Update 2026-07-25 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - To qualify, the event must be a loss-of-control incident.