Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
26 Eki 2026 06:41 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 66.3%
Evet 66.3%Tahminciler
11
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Nis 23 01:41 UTC1 Oca 51 04:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Resolves YES if any device meant to cause an explosion via a nuclear reaction is detonated at least 100 km above Earth's surface before the end of 2050.
- This does not include times that this has happened before the market was created (both the U.S. and the Soviet Union tested nuclear weapons in space before nuclear test ban treaties prohibited it).
- It doesn't necessarily have to be a nuclear weapon.
- A nuclear explosive used for any purpose will count (e.g., destroying or redirecting asteroids that endanger Earth, nuclear thrusters, space mining).
- A device powered by a nuclear reactor doesn't count, even if that device is used to generate explosions - it has to be a nuclear explosion.
