Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
One-OffJeopolitikMiddle East5ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıEski veriler
4 Haz 2026 02:24 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-2
Güncel topluluk tahminiEvet 1.2%
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Guncelligini yitirmis22 Mar 26 1:1231 Ara 26 23:59
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Yes1%
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Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
- The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
- Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.