Will a missile, launched from Iran, hit London by the end of December 31st 2026?
One-OffJeopolitikOrta Doğu2ay
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 99%
Tahminciler
40
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
23 dakika önce güncellendi
22 Mar 26 01:12 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
P(Tianshu) by end of December 31st 2026
Manifold MarketsWill SUI and APTOS blockchains merge into a single network by December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the Grand Theft Auto 6 release be delayed until December 1st 2026 or later?
Manifold MarketsWill Tyler Robinson be alive on December 31st, 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a ballistic missile or cruise missile launched from Iranian territory strikes London (or its metropolitan area) by 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2026.
- Resolution will be based on credible reporting from major international news sources (BBC, Reuters, AP, AFP, etc.) confirming a direct hit on London.
- The market resolves NO if no such strike occurs by the deadline.
- Iran fired missiles towards the UK-US base on Diego Garcia, part of the Chagos Islands, which is about 3,800km (2,360 miles) from Iran about the same distance from Iran to London.
- Iran's missile range reaches the capitals of Europe — Berlin, Paris and Rome are all within direct threat range.