Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035?
One-OffHealth & MedicineBilim8yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 71.3%
Tahminciler
41
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 Eki 23 22:05 UTC2 Oca 35 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will AOC ever give birth?
Manifold MarketsWill I give birth before age 30?
Manifold MarketsIn twenty years, will the best evidence show very substantial (>one quarter) declines in fertility rate (relative to couples trying equally hard to conceive in the past) due to decreasing sperm count, in at least one country?
Manifold MarketsWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiKurallar
Background: Several startups and research labs are currently working on gametogensis with gay couples in mind.
- Quibbles: Stillbirths or abortions don't count; the child must be viable for at least a day postpartum. "Gay couple" for the purposes of this market means two biological males or two biological females (regardless of gender identity or sexual orientation), not necessarily in a relationship with each other.
- The couple does not need to birth or carry the child to term themselves; surrogates are allowed/expected.
- See also: @/MetaculusBot/when-will-we-see-the-first-viable-h-19ca28a5b59f
Açık piyasalar
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.3pt97%
- Yes+0.3pt3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺877,5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺2 Mn
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺91,4 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺292,1 B
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺4,7 Mn
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000-1.0pt96%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺48,7 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.5pt94%
- Yes-0.5pt6%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺51,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺85 B
KALSHIWhen will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Before July 2027+67.0pt97%
- Before 202872%
- Before October 202752%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺236,2 B
- 24s Hacim
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
Sık sorulan sorular
- Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 71% fiyatlıyor.
- Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2035.
- Will a gay couple give birth to an equally-genetically-related child before 2035? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Background: Several startups and research labs are currently working on gametogensis with gay couples in mind.