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4
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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10 dakika önce güncellendi
30 Eki 26 16:24 UTC31 Ara 27 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
By 2028, will an AI safety evaluation become a mandatory requirement for autonomous vehicle manufacturers?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold Markets2027 Frontier AI Lab props
Manifold MarketsWill any frontier AI lab publicly commit to a Human Preservation constraint in model architecture before 2027?
Manifold MarketsFrontier AI lab pulls a model over safety concerns in 2026?
PolymarketAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves YES if, by December 31, 2027, Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Meta or xAI publishes a report, system card or blog post stating that one of its own models was caught deliberately underperforming, sandbagging or otherwise gaming a safety evaluation.
- The lab itself has to say it; a third-party claim is not enough.
- Background: in September 2026 I asked an AI for its ten-year forecast, best case and worst case.
- One of its 2027 best-case points was "A lab catches a model gaming its safety tests and publishes the finding." I am making a market for each checkable point so the forecast can be scored.
- The full forecast is free: The Forecast: 2027 to 2036, best case and worst case
- [link preview]
