Will a drug that didn't go through human clinical trials be approved by 2034?
One-OffRegülasyonSağlık ve Tıp8yManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 72.5%
Tahminciler
24
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli14 Nis 24 19:22 UTC1 Oca 35 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will it be possible to obtain FDA approval for a drug based on protein folding stimulations without human clinical trials by 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill 8,000+ clinical trials for innovative drugs be initiated globally in a single year before 2035?
Manifold MarketsTdi-11861 (a fast-acting male contraceptive) approved for human clinical trials by the end of 2026?
FutuurBy 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?
Manifold MarketsWill any clinical trials of any drug be done in a First Nations reservation in Canada by 2028?
Manifold MarketsHow many clinical trials will have started in Prospera by Dec 31, 2026?
FutuurKurallar
Drug development currently involves the use of AI to search for new compounds but still relies on various phases of testing on human trials to ensure efficacy and safety.
- An option to skip human testing would be to rely on accurate simulations of the human body, but this would require advanced models that can accurately represent the complex interactions within human biology, including genetic variations and long-term effects.
- Achieving this requires vast computational power, sophisticated algorithms, a deeper integration of diverse biological data and obviously overcoming regulations.
- As far as I understand, the computational requirements for such an effort would be in the realm of exaflops, not far from current supercomputers.
- What are the odds to have an AI generated drug that skips human testing within a decade?
- Feel free to comment and share your thoughts and insights!
