Will 10% of San Francisco die in any year from disaster, before 2029?
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Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Hayır 98.5%
Hayır 98.5%Tahminciler
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10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis31 May 23 02:09 UTC1 Şub 29 04:59 UTC
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Some examples of disasters:
- -Nuclear strike
- -Infrastructure collapse, such as from a solar flare
- If a disaster affects the city of San Francisco, we'll refer to the total deaths attributed during the calendar year.
- We then calculate that as a percent of the prior population.
- If it's 10% or more, we resolve Yes.
