Will >10 EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, *including* crypto or inheritance?
KriptoOne-OffEnflasyonİş Dünyası ve Şirketler4y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 84%
Tahminciler
22
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis10 Ara 22 13:36 UTC28 Şub 31 05:00 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
This is a copy of another bet, but with more (that was 1 this is 10) and this included crypto and inheritance.
- Linchuan Zhang and Joel Becker recently bet on this.
- The full operationalization of their bet is as follows (which Natália Mendonça got from https://twitter.com/joel_bkr/status/1495097579369119748?s=21): ————— Linch 1:14 PM Proposed bet operationalization: "a person who had <100M at the time they a) became an EA and b) as of Feb 28 2021, would at any point before February 28 2031 have >$1B USD.
- Where EA is defined as "either a) public self-identification as EA, b) signing the Giving What Can pledge or c) taking the EA survey and being a 4 or 5 on the engagement axis , and $ as "in inflation-adjusted 2021 dollars.'" Note that this operationalization would include people who are not EAs today, but would include people who become EAs in the next 10 years as long as they had <$100M.
