Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Evet 66.7%
Tahminciler
31
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis21 Oca 25 13:45 UTC20 Oca 29 22:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Donald Trump pardon any of his cabinet members from his second term?
Manifold MarketsWho will Trump pardon?
Kalshi[Add Answers] What people or groups will Trump pardon or commute the sentences of? (After 12/3/25)
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell during his term?
FutuurWho will Trump pardon before 2027?
PolymarketKurallar
Democracy observers worry that pardoning J6 insurrectionists incentivizes future political violence, because it signals that Donald Trump might shield them from legal consequences.
- Political violence against opponents of the President is a commonly used tactic for authoritarian capture.
- Will Trump do this?
- What counts: pardoning assassination attempt, attacking opposing protestors, etc., attacks on Republicans by far-right individuals will also count
- The violence must occur during the second term.
Açık piyasalar
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34,1 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺39,1 Mn
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.8pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺34 Mr
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.2pt3%
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt15.2%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt14.1%
+45 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺10,3 Mr
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 daha fazla sonuç
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Sık sorulan sorular
- Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Yes için 67% fiyatlıyor.
- Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 20 Ocak 2029.
- Wil Trump pardon political violence that occurs during his second term? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Democracy observers worry that pardoning J6 insurrectionists incentivizes future political violence, because it signals that Donald Trump might shield them from legal consequences.