Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiNeither by end of 2035 47%3 seçenek arasında lider
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Guncelligini yitirmis1 Haz 26 14:10 UTC31 Ara 35 23:00 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will a crewed Mars flyby or Mars orbit mission be attempted before a crewed Mars landing mission?
Manifold MarketsWill China successfully complete a Mars Sample Return mission before the USA and Europe do?
Manifold MarketsWill the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit?
Manifold MarketsWho will launch the first crewed space station with functioning artificial gravity (via rotation)?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBitcoin price at the end of 2026
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Resolution criteria
- Resolves to whichever party first launches a crewed spacecraft on a trajectory passing within ~50,000 km of Mars.
- "USA" includes any US-based company (SpaceX, etc.) or public agency (NASA). "China" includes CNSA or any Chinese entity.
- A landing is NOT required — a flyby trajectory with crew aboard at the time of launch is sufficient.
- Resolved by launch date.
- If a landing mission flies by Mars en route, it counts as a flyby for this purpose.
