Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreVeri kalitesi uyarısıKaynak verileri bozulmuş
25 Eki 2026 20:40 UTC itibarıyla veriler · politika pm-quality-4
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%11 seçenek arasında lider
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%Tahminciler
42
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
-23.5 pts
Piyasa verileri
16 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis8 Şub 25 00:00 UTC2 Oca 28 07:59 UTC
Trendler
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This market is based on: @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
- If the linked Scott Alexander market resolves NO, this market resolves to 'Nobody'.
- If the linked market resolves YES, this market resolves based on which AI was used to trigger the resolution of the linked market.
- I reserve the right to edit options in the interest of making this market as predictively useful as possible.
- For example, to avoid overlap, if 'OpenAI' and 'Sam Altman' were both options I would edit 'Sam Altman' to say 'The first AI dev organization founded by Sam Altman after he leaves OpenAI'.
- I will generally try to edit the most recently added option in such a scenario, and I will perform the edit as soon as the issue is brought to my attention.
