Güncel topluluk tahmini
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet 29%8 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
68
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
18 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis3 Mar 24 16:53 UTC31 Ara 29 23:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
Manifold MarketsConditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
Manifold MarketsBy at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
Manifold MarketsWill the first human level AGI be Neuromorphic/WBE rather than Prosaic?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiKurallar
This question seeks to identify who will first publicly reveal human-level AGI.
- Timeline: Voting closes at the end of 2029.
- The question may be resolved earlier if a clear winner emerges.
- If human-level AGI is not achieved by 2030, the question will resolve based on who has made the most progress towards the criteria.
- Definitions:
- Human-level AGI: Artificial Intelligence capable of doing almost all human cognitive tasks to a high level (equivalent or better than a median professional in the field).