Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiOther 32.2%8 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
25
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
11 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis9 Nis 26 20:18 UTC31 Ara 30 21:24 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Dwarkesh do a podcast with Satoshi Nakamoto before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWill the identity of Satoshi Nakamoto be revealed before 2031?
Manifold MarketsNothing Ever Happens: Satoshi Nakamoto
PolymarketWill any of the following be confirmed to be Satoshi Nakamoto?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.
- If Satoshi is revealed to be a collaboration between multiple people, it resolves roughly to the best estimate of the % that each are responsible for Satoshi's identity.
- I will also defer to consensus reporting, the Wikipedia page, etc. For example, if the Wiki page decisively lists one individual as Satoshi Nakamoto, that would likely be sufficient to resolve, and if the NYT, WSJ, WaPo, and Guardian all put out articles saying that the drama is over and Satoshi's identity has been conclusively revealed (as the same person), that would also probably be sufficient to resolve.
- Market will be extended indefinitely until more definitive evidence emerges.
- I think there are reasons to believe that AI will be able to unearth convincing evidence within a few years, but I ultimately don't have a horse in this race.
- I've only loosely followed the drama.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-5.0pt61.6%
- 202730.3%
- 2026-4.5pt8.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺13,8 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺6 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.4pt59.2%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt24.3%
- Grok-0.9pt6.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺516,8 Mn
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-3.5pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+8.0pt79%
- claude-opus-5-max+2.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking+1.0pt5%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-4.0pt94%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETGemini 4.0 released by which date?
- November 30-3.0pt87%
- October 31-5.0pt72%
- September 30-16.5pt12%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Tencent market share this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- DeepSeek market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 9 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Other için 32% fiyatlıyor.
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2030.
- Who is Satoshi Nakamoto? (resolves at 90% confidence) nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Resolves when I (deferring heavily to other Manifold mods/superusers who are paying more attention to this subject) am ~90% confident that Satoshi Nakamoto has been identified.