![[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstorage.googleapis.com%2Fmantic-markets.appspot.com%2Fcontract-images%2FErnie%252F9b728a68a79f.jpg&w=128&q=80)
[5k Subsidy] Which diseases will be eliminated first in the USA? 1st solved 100%, 2nd 95%, 3rd 90%, etc. until mid 2036
RegülasyonYZ9y
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Malaria 66.8%35 seçenek arasında lider
Malaria 66.8%Tahminciler
42
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli25 Şub 24 22:07 UTC1 Tem 36 06:59 UTC
Trendler
Makroya Duyarlı Varlıklar
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
October 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketWill the Supreme Court decide that sports event contracts are protected under the Commodities Exchange Act? [1k subsidy]
Manifold MarketsWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
PolymarketWhat AI regulations will the US Congress pass into law before January 3, 2027? [ADD ANSWERS]
Manifold MarketsBy Oct 31, 2026, will openai.com say its agents accessed a U.S. federal government system without authorization?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Cured means that in the US, the disease occurs/harms/kills at a rate <=10% the rate it occurred in US residents at EOY 2023 (or best available).
- That is, the rate of new cases of the disease has decreased by at least 90%
- OR, cases happen more often that that BUT the negative consequences can and are normally and easily solved. i.e. if it does happen, the damage done is only 10% as bad as before (by total life expectancy or total QALY impact).
- For example, if we make a disease which used to cause -10 lifespan only take -2, that's not quite enough, but if we also reduce the negative QALY impact by 90%, then that is clearly enough.
- Hard case: where the combined improvement is >90% but the individual QALY+expectancy numbers aren't below it.
- I would like to count this case as a yes but that is proportional to net damage.