Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Before 2033 77.6%7 seçenek arasında lider
Before 2033 77.6%Tahminciler
14
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Ara 25 08:58 UTC1 Oca 34 07:59 UTC
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İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Level 5 self driving cars be available by (YEAR)?
Manifold MarketsWill fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major US city before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a fully autonomous, Level 5 self driving car be available for purchase in the US by the year 2040?
Manifold MarketsOnce level 5 self-driving cars are available to the public, will any pre-2024 Tesla model be capable of it?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 25, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiKurallar
The impetus for this market is asking whether Elon Musk is correct in rejecting lidar sensors for self-driving.
- Did the Tesla robotaxis in Austin in summer 2025 count?
- No, even if we decide those were level 4, we need wider deployment (see next FAQ item) than that to count for this market.
- How wide is "widely deployed"?
- 100 million autonomous miles, with zero fatalities that are the fault of the AI.
- Is this specific to Tesla?
