Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini2027 34.7%10 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
60
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
7 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis22 May 25 18:07 UTC1 Oca 35 19:03 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will the next French presidential elections (2027) take place without any major democratic problems because of AI?
Manifold MarketsWill an emergency service provider be sued because of an AI system by eoy2027?
Manifold MarketsWill anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
PolymarketBen Pasternak jailed?
PolymarketPoland: Will Zbigniew Ziobro be jailed by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI be charged with a crime before 2027?
PolymarketKurallar
A year resolves positively if someone is incarcerated because they were snitched on by an AI that was their AI assistant, in that year.
- All subsequent years resolve No. As in, an agent autonomously, deliberately telling authorities or others about something the user did or is planning to do, in a way that leads to that user's arrest
- [image]Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator acknowledges that information from AI system cards (such as the one shared for Claude 4, detailing AI behaviors or reporting protocols) is relevant for interpreting the market's resolution criteria, especially regarding an AI autonomously and deliberately snitching.
- This aspect was unintentionally omitted from the original description.
- Update 2025-05-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - It is considered snitching if the AI assistant is instructed in its underlying prompt (e.g., by its developers) to flag suspicious individuals for review and then does so.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
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- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
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Sık sorulan sorular
- When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2027 için 35% fiyatlıyor.
- When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2035.
- When will someone be jailed because their AI snitched on them? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: A year resolves positively if someone is incarcerated because they were snitched on by an AI that was their AI assistant, in that year.