Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
2026 99%5 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
24
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+5.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
6 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis23 Ara 24 17:57 UTC31 Oca 29 07:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
'Breakthrough' Frontier Math Open Problem solved before 2028
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Self-explanatory
- Update 2025-06-01 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Resolution Criteria:
- The market will resolve to the first year that a >90% score is reported on the benchmark.
- Subsequent years will resolve to no.
- Initialization:
- Probabilities are set by Manifold and may not necessarily add up to 100%.
Açık piyasalar
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-13.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-high+1.0pt5%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺7,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,8 Mn
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+20.0pt63.5%
- 2027-3.5pt26.1%
- 2026+5.5pt10.4%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,-0.5pt86%
- November 30,85%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude61.8%
- ChatGPT-4.9pt22.6%
- Grok+1.5pt7.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺511,4 Mn
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+4.0pt80.6%
- ChatGPT-3.0pt12%
- Grok2.8%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺18,2 Mn
- 24s Hacim
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-3.0pt67%
- 1490+-5.5pt50%
- 1500+-10.0pt23%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%) için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2026 için 99% fiyatlıyor.
- When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%) ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%) için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Ocak 2029.
- When will Epoch's Frontier Math be solved? (>90%) nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Self-explanatory