Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiİyi kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
<2035 62%7 seçenek arasında lider
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multiple choice
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Play-money forecasting platform
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8 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis5 Haz 24 02:26 UTC2 Oca 35 04:59 UTC
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By what year will the most FLOP intensive run have been conducted or owned by the US federal government? Resolves Yes on all later years.
- Qualifying events:
- Any arrangement (contractors, national labs etc.) under which the US government employees have the right to control what queries are run on the model.
- Any international collaboration where the US retains model query veto rights, but does not include international collaboration where the US is a stakeholder having e.g. a minority vote.
- If the US government seizes control over the current most FLOP-intensive pre-existing AI this qualifies.
- Any unanticipated event which clearly satisfies the spirit of this question
