Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
2030 or later 25.3%7 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
15
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis27 May 24 17:02 UTC1 Oca 30 21:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Netflix remain the most popular video streaming platform at the end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketKurallar
(This is a lightly modified multiple-choice version of this 2024 market, with slightly simplified criteria.)
- This question resolves to YES if an AI agent has learned to speedrun at least one popular category (≥30 unique runners on speedrun.com or another leaderboard) of any video game, and has finished at least one run with a better time than any human speedrunner at the time.
- Native PC or emulated console games are both fine.
- Criteria for resolution:
- The AI must be capable of speedrunning the game in real time and learn to do so without directly learning from human inputs (e.g. learning from Youtube videos is fine).
- A traditional TAS (tool-assisted speedrun) does not count.
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+9.0pt56.9%
- 2027+3.5pt33%
- 2026+4.0pt10.1%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺12,6 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺9 Mn
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-5.0pt69%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max-3.0pt3%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.5pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt84%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.1pt59.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt25%
- Grok+0.6pt7.7%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺512,2 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-5.5pt66%
- 1490+-5.0pt56%
- 1500+-0.5pt28%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 daha fazla sonuç
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released on?
- Most popular AI this week
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla 2030 or later için 25% fiyatlıyor.
- When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2030.
- When will an AI be able to speedrun a popular video game faster than the human WR? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: (This is a lightly modified multiple-choice version of this 2024 market, with slightly simplified criteria.)