Güncel topluluk tahmini
After June 2028 48.1%3 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
37
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
13 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Tem 26 04:56 UTC1 Tem 28 07:00 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Will it take <=12 months for open-source AI forecasting to go from consistently worse than humans to broadly superhuman?
Manifold MarketsPMF or Die (AI Forecasting Edition)
Manifold MarketsHow comfident do you think one should be that their crush doesn't like them back so that it's better not to confess ?
Manifold MarketsWill a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the outcome of the 2026 New Zealand General Election?
Manifold MarketsWill Anthropic IPO before OpenAI?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Currently, in July 2026, the top forecasting bots are slightly below or equal to top humans.
- Extrapolating their progress, they should leave humans in the dust between 1 and 2 years from now.
- Unless the best humans are already near the theoretical maximum of how good even a superintelligence can be at forecasting.
- In which case AI forecasting is about to plateau.
- This is a big deal because Sayash Kapoor and Arvind Narayanan (the "AI as Normal Technology" (AINT) folks) have set this as one of their lines in the sand.
- They claim that domains like chess and protein folding (and maybe math) are the exception and that in most domains, humans are already near the limit of how high performance can get.
