When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month?
13.0 puan (24s)YZ4ayManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiNot before 2030 68.5%+13.0pt4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
18
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+13.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
26 dakika önce guncellendi
25 Mar 24 3:572 Oca 27 7:59
Trendler
Kurallar
Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?
- This market resolves to the period of time in which an eligible market first stays above 90%, not the period of time that the market predicts AGI to be announced.
- This means that if a real money market in 2025 expects OpenAI to announce AGI in 2027, this market resolves to the option "the named outcome"
- Eligible markets are listed at the bottom of this market description, and more markets will be added as they are created and receive similar amounts of real money trading volume.
- To resolve this Manifold market, an eligible real money market must have limit orders keeping the price above 90% for at least 30 days, with the displayed price never dropping below 90% for more than 24 continuous hours.
- Note: These criteria are still in draft form, and may be updated to better match the spirit of the question.
Açık piyasalar
AI
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by __?
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- October 31,+8.5pt82%
- October 15,-3.5pt50%
+4 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
- ↑$1.25T-0.9pt97%
+10 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of August?
- Alibaba-1.0pt95%
- Company A50%
- Other50%
+22 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.6pt68.6%
- Grok-2.1pt10.5%
- ChatGPT-2.8pt9.5%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺440,6 Mn
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Sık sorulan sorular
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 21 Ağustos 2026 itibarıyla Not before 2030 için 69% fiyatlıyor.
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 2 Ocak 2027.
- When will a real money prediction market about OpenAI announcing AGI first stay above 90% for one month? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Will a high-volume, real money prediction market expect that OpenAI is at least 90% likely to announce the creation of AGI before 2030?