Güncel topluluk tahmini
By Dec 31, 2030 98.9%6 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
35
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
5 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis7 Oca 25 04:56 UTC1 Oca 32 05:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
By which flight will SpaceX successfully recover both Starship and its Booster?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX launch a non-SpaceX payload on Starship before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028?
PolymarketSpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill SpaceX successfully refuel a Starship in orbit during 2026?
FutuurKurallar
Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).
- In order to count as reusable, the booster needs to actually be successfully re-used! However only the initial launch of the booster needs to happen by the date stated, the re-use launch can happen up to 2 years later and will retroactively make the date of the initial launch count.
- Example: Rocket A and rocket B are both non-SpaceX rockets intended to be reusable, and no other relevant launches occur.
- Rocket A is launched successfully on Nov 20th 2026 but never reused.
- Rocket B is launched on Dec 20th 2027, then re-launched successfully on April 15th 2028.
- The options would resolve as follows:
Açık piyasalar
AIPOLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+27.5pt93%
- 2026+52.0pt75%
- September 30, 2026+53.0pt60%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,1 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude59.2%
- ChatGPT+1.1pt23.3%
- Gemini+1.3pt6.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺520,3 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+45.5pt85%
- 2026+42.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+57.5pt67%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%+10.0pt84%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt83%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.6%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202716.2%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Tencent market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla By Dec 31, 2030 için 99% fiyatlıyor.
- When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 1 Ocak 2032.
- When will a non-SpaceX successfully reusable booster be first launched? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Each option will resolve yes if a reusable booster is launched by an entity other than SpaceX by the end of the date stated (Eastern time).