Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiJanuary 2029 or earlier 64.8%6 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
22
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis26 Ara 25 09:30 UTC31 Oca 29 23:59 UTC
Trendler
0%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
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PolymarketKurallar
Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.
- When the command involves moving the character, this entails use of a "navigation" tool that allows Claude to take multiple steps at a time.
- This is presumably due to how arduous it would be to require Claude to take each step individually.
- It would produce a lot of extra tokens (filling Claude's context with useless content) with Claude not being able to process more than one screenshot per character step without having to stop and think, slowing down gameplay considerably.
- This market resolves YES for all times at or before which a general-purpose, publicly available AI model from Anthropic, either explicitly named Claude, or part of a model series clearly the successor to the Claude series of models, can process frames of a Pokemon game and take actions with an emulator tool, at a faster rate than the character in the Pokemon game can take steps.
- This speed requirement includes all networking and processing latency in an implementation of Claude Plays Pokemon, and must be demonstrated in some publicly-visible form, such as a Twitch live stream.
Sık sorulan sorular
- When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla January 2029 or earlier için 65% fiyatlıyor.
- When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Ocak 2029.
- When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: Currently the way Claude Plays Pokemon works is that Claude executes some command with the emulator, and then after that command completes, it takes a screenshot, and considers its next move.