Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
Human population will not decrease before 2100 26.5%5 seçenek arasında lider
Human population will not decrease before 2100 26.5%Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
1 saat önce güncellendi
Gecikmeli17 Tem 24 01:13 UTC2 Oca 00 04:59 UTC
Trendler
Kurallar
Which year will the population of humans on January 1st be less than the population of humans on January 1st the year prior for the first time in recorded history?
- This includes all humans not on Earth as well.
- This question doesn't ask when population will peak; human population may well continue to increase the following year.
- Assuming it is still active, https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/world-population-by-year/ will be used as the reference.
- Population models from the United Nations predict that this may happen within the next hundred years. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:World_Population_Prospects.svg Although, a number of reasonable possibilities may break these models.
- An existential risk materializing could make this sooner than expected.
