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  3. What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]
Manifold Markets

What will OpenAI do before IPO that is easier as a private company? [Add answers]

Corporate ActionsOne-OffYZUS Politics2y
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKYC yok
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Manifold Markets
Give substantial equity to the US government 28.1%
4 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler

4

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

dün guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis
8 Haz 26 21:5031 Ara 28 23:59

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Sonuç24sOlasılık

Seçilen sonuç

Give substantial equity to the US government28%

Kurallar

Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company.

Manifold Markets
  • Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count.
  • Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.
  • OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company".
  • I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
  • I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")

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What Month in 2026 Will OpenAI IPO in?

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What Month in 2026 Will Anthropic IPO in?

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Manifold Markets

OpenAI completes an IPO in 2026 and has a market cap of $1 trillion+?

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Kurallar

Options will resolve YES as they happen or NO if they are not reported by the time OpenAI is trading as a public company.

Manifold Markets
  • Things that happened before IPO but were not reported by trusted media sources (WSJ, FT, Reuters, NYT, The Information, etc.) or announced officially will not count.
  • Market resolves N/A if no IPO by the end of 2028.
  • OpenAI says they haven't decided when to go public yet, since there are things they want to do "that are likely easier as a private company".
  • I will judge what things are easier as a private company from my own subjective view and understanding, but if a resolution is controversial i might defer to a frontier LLM.
  • I will N/A added options that i consider to not be relevant to the private/public company question ("GPT-6 releases", "Sam Altman dies", "Trump says the words Obama or Obamacare")