What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE]
YZManifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiRuns entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines 93.3%23 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
37
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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Piyasa verileri
15 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis24 Nis 24 12:58 UTC22 Mar 50 22:59 UTC
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KalshiKurallar
"First AGI" refers to the initial publicly acknowledged AI that surpasses the Longbets Turing test and becomes accessible to everyone (in at least 3 countries), prompting the resolution of the "AGI When?" market of the Manifold AI countdown (if not yet resolved).
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldAI/agi-when-resolves-to-the-year-in-wh-d5c5ad8e4708)Resolution Criteria:
- Multiple responses can be resolved as YES.
- Additional responses can be submitted.
- If the first AI that meets these criteria is classified as ASI rather than just AGI, it will still qualify under this market.
- An AI that has passed the Longbets Turing test but is not publicly accessible will not be considered the "first." It only counts as the "first" when it becomes accessible to everyone.
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Sık sorulan sorular
- What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE] için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Runs entirely on silicon-based non-quantum machines için 93% fiyatlıyor.
- What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE] ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE] için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 22 Mart 2050.
- What will be true about the first AGI that becomes accessible to everyone? [ADD MORE] nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: "First AGI" refers to the initial publicly acknowledged AI that surpasses the Longbets Turing test and becomes accessible to everyone (in at least 3 countries), prompting the resolution of the "AGI When?" market of the Manifold AI countdown (if not yet resolved).