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  3. What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?
What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

What will be the tipping point Senate seat for Democrats in the 2026 elections?

PolitikaCommoditiesYZ5ay
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsKYC yok
Güncel topluluk tahmini
Maine
Maine 15.5%
16 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler

17

Soru türü

multiple choice

Yöntem

Play-money forecasting platform

Kaynak türü

Tahmin

Piyasa verileri

5 gün önce guncellendi

Guncelligini yitirmis
2 Ara 24 1:116 Ara 26 4:59

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Sonuç24sOlasılık

Seçilen sonuç

Maine16%

Kurallar

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!

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Kurallar

If you order all the Senate seats by their vote margin after the election, which one would give Democrats their 51st seat? This idea was popularized by Nate Silver.

Manifold Markets
  • If they're caucusing with Democrats, I'm counting them for this market.
  • For example, in the 2024 Senate elections, Montana would be the tipping point state for Democrats.
  • If the country had voted 7.16% more Democratic across the board, Democrats would have 51 seats, with Montana being the narrowest seat they won.
  • Note that the tipping point for Republicans would be their 50th seat, but Democrats have to get 51 seats for control of the Senate.
  • Feel free to add more states you think could be it!