What prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the Senate midterm election of 2026? (Read Rules)
2.8 puan (24s)PolitikaOne-OffABD SiyasetiSeçim2026 ABD Ara Seçimleri10g
Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiPolymarket 63%+2.8pt3 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
14
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+17.9 pts
Piyasa verileri
10 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis31 Tem 26 09:46 UTC4 Kas 26 00:00 UTC
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Which prediction market will have the most accurate prediction for the 2026 midterm election?
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PredictItKurallar
This market will resolve to which prediction is the most accurate based on the formula outlined below.
- For the purposes of this market, the winner of the Senate will be the party that AP declares will hold a majority in the Senate as a result of the 2026 midterms (this includes the tie-breaking vote of the vice president and independent senators who are known to caucus with one party).
- If there is a tie, the market that had the most accurate prediction at 8 PM on the day of the midterms will win.
- The accuracy of a market's forecasts shall be measured using a Linear Decreasing Time-Weighted Brier Score.
- The purpose of this scoring rule is to reward markets that make accurate forecasts earlier in the life of the market, rather than only shortly before the outcome becomes known.
- Markets will be measured once per calendar day.
