Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahmini
---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- 45.8%14 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
40
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
0.0 pts
Piyasa verileri
4 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis15 Kas 22 15:48 UTC31 Ara 29 22:59 UTC
Trendler
0.5%
0.2%
0.2%
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Another NATO article 4 by which date?
PolymarketNATO article 5 before 2027?
PolymarketWill NATO article 5 be instigated before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill any CSTO member state successfully invoke Article 4 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Emmanuel Macron invoke Article 16 before the end of his mandate?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump invoke the Insurrection Act?
KalshiKurallar
market for Article 4:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/kolotom99/what-is-the-next-country-to-invoke-82682cdecb35)Update 2026-08-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - The trigger is defined as an official action.
- If multiple countries trigger Article 5 at the same time, the market will split resolve between them.
Açık piyasalar
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+4.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.3pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.0pt3%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,3 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺29,5 Mn
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.9pt47.8%
- October 31-3.0pt29.2%
- September 30-4.0pt12.4%
+17 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-5.0pt74%
- September 18-10.0pt67%
- September 11-2.5pt63%
+2 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
- July 310%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 daha fazla sonuç
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺2 Mr
- 24s Hacim
- ₺5,3 Mn
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Iran full airspace closure by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
Sık sorulan sorular
- What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 8 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla ---NO ARTICLE 5 BEFORE 2030--- için 46% fiyatlıyor.
- What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 31 Aralık 2029.
- What is the next country to invoke NATO Article 5? nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: market for Article 4: