Güncel topluluk tahmini
Before 2026-12-01 89%+19.6pt6 seçenek arasında lider
Tahminciler
6
Soru türü
multiple choice
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
7g Değişim
+19.6 pts
Piyasa verileri
8 dakika önce güncellendi
9 Eyl 26 17:41 UTC16 Ara 26 04:59 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release Llama 5 this year?
KalshiWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release a smartwatch in 2026?
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiGrand Theft Auto VI: New trailer release date
KalshiKurallar
This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.
- Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Açık piyasalar
AI
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+27.5pt93%
- 2026+52.0pt75%
- September 30, 2026+53.0pt60%
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺5 Mn
- 24s Hacim
- ₺3,1 Mn
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude59.2%
- ChatGPT+1.1pt23.3%
- Gemini+1.3pt6.8%
+5 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺520,3 Mn
POLYMARKETOpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+45.5pt85%
- 2026+42.5pt73%
- September 30, 2026+57.5pt67%
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.25%-7.0pt88%
- Above 2.45%+10.0pt84%
- Above 2.6%+16.0pt56%
+6 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-0.5pt83%
+7 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
POLYMARKETWhich Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Hodge Conjecture42.9%
- Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer27.6%
- No solution by Dec 31, 202716.2%
+3 daha fazla sonuç
- Toplam Hacim
- ₺1,6 Mn
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Tencent market share this week
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic announces a Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Time's Person of the Year for 2026
Sık sorulan sorular
- 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date için güncel oranlar nedir?
- Manifold Markets, 10 Eylül 2026 itibarıyla Before 2026-12-01 için 89% fiyatlıyor.
- 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date ne zaman sonuçlanacak?
- 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date için öngörülen sonuçlanma tarihi 16 Aralık 2026.
- 'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date nasıl sonuçlandırılıyor?
- Manifold Markets bu piyasayı şu şekilde sonuçlandırır: This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.