Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiEvet 81%
Tahminciler
8
Soru türü
binary
Yöntem
Play-money forecasting platform
Kaynak türü
Tahmin
Piyasa verileri
12 saat önce güncellendi
Guncelligini yitirmis28 Tem 25 22:16 UTC31 Ara 59 23:15 UTC
Trendler
İlgili Piyasalar
Bağlam için ilgili sorular; eşdeğer sözleşmelerin karşılaştırması değildir.
Trump declares election interference national emergency by which date?
PolymarketTrump declares nationwide martial law?
Manifold MarketsWill Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
KalshiTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTrump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?
PolymarketWhat Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
Manifold MarketsKurallar
Resolves as YES if there is strong evidence that Donald Trump has publicly, explicitly, and unambiguously declared that artificial general intelligence (AGI) has been achieved before the reigning Pope makes an equivalent declaration.
- Resolution criteria
- What counts as a declaration?
- A clear, public statement (speech, press release, published interview, or official post on a verified social‑media account) asserting that humanity has created an artificial intelligence with capabilities broadly equal to—or exceeding—those of an average human across most cognitive domains.
- Mere claims of “powerful AI,” “superintelligence on the horizon,” or marketing hype do not suffice; the speaker must explicitly confirm that AGI already exists.
- Evidence standard