Manifold MarketsKYC yokDoğrulanmış sonuçlanma verisiOrta düzey kalibreGüncel topluluk tahminiHayır 96.7%
Tahminciler
568
Soru türü
binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Tahmin
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12 dakika önce güncellendi
11 Haz 25 05:06 UTC31 Ara 26 23:59 UTC
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NOTE: This market includes any autonomous ride in a Tesla, not just the robotaxi service!
- Waymo claims 700k fully autonomous rides in 2023, which was more than ~0 Tesla rides that were fully autonomous in 2023.
- To define fully autonomous, I'll use the following definition:
- No human operates any direct controls inside the vehicle like the steering wheel or pedals
- No human in the car actively monitors the driving being ready to intervene
- Must be of a non-trivial distance (e.g. crossing the parking lot does not count)